Colts vs 49ers — Week 5, 2017
The Colts took over tied at 23 with 3:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 23, 49ers 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 18, 3:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.2% for Colts. Our model starts at 51.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:39) (Run formation) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Aiken.
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-B.Williams to IND 24 for 6 yards (29-J.Tartt; 53-N.Bowman).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief to IND 31 for 7 yards (36-D.Johnson).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack right end to SF 34 for 35 yards (53-N.Bowman).
- (2:00) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle to SF 34 for no gain (93-D.Jones; 91-A.Armstead).
- (1:54) (Run formation) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 47-D.Daniels (33-R.Robinson).
- (1:47) (Run formation) 33-R.Turbin up the middle to SF 33 for 1 yard (29-J.Tartt).
- (1:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.37 pts |
| Curl route | +0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Play action | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.95 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Inside run | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.89 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.21 pts |
| Deep post | -2.55 pts |
| End-around | -2.81 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.07 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.