Eagles vs Panthers — Week 6, 2017
The Eagles took over leading 28-23 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 28, Panthers 23. Eagles won 28-23 — the drive turned it over.
Eagles ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 16, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.0% for Eagles. Our model starts at 87.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) 29-L.Blount left guard to PHI 23 for 7 yards (58-T.Davis). Isaac Seumalo reports as eligible
- (3:01) 29-L.Blount up the middle to PHI 19 for -4 yards (54-S.Thompson; 99-K.Short).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short middle to 86-Z.Ertz.
- (2:13) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to CAR 31, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill. PHI-10-M.Hollins was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.77 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Quick out | -1.08 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.42 pts |
| Curl route | -2.56 pts |
| End-around | -4.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.58 pts |
| Deep post | -7.82 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.