Titans vs Texans — Week 13, 2017
The Titans took over leading 17-13 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Texans 13. Titans won 24-13 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 79.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 27 for 2 yards (53-G.President; 41-Z.Cunningham).
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 13-T.Taylor pushed ob at TEN 27 for no gain (25-K.Jackson).
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 24 for -3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (3:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to HOU 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-C.Thompson MUFFS catch, touched at HOU 21, and recovers at HOU 22. 14-C.Thompson to HOU 28 for 6 yards (33-T.Smith).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.85 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Curl route | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -1.74 pts |
| End-around | -3.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.76 pts |
| Deep post | -6.66 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.85 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.