Ravens vs Texans — Week 12, 2017
The Ravens took over leading 20-16 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at the Texans 49, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 23, Texans 16. Ravens won 23-16 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 84.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 34-A.Collins left guard to HOU 41 for 8 yards (30-K.Johnson).
- (3:58) 34-A.Collins left guard to HOU 41 for no gain (98-D.Reader).
- (3:13) 34-A.Collins right guard to HOU 32 for 3 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
- (3:07) 34-A.Collins right guard to HOU 33 for -1 yards (92-B.Dunn).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 39-D.Woodhead left guard to HOU 31 for 2 yards (55-B.McKinney).
- (2:58) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.80 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.80 pts |
| Outside run | +0.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.18 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB keep | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.74 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Play action | -2.06 pts |
| Curl route | -2.15 pts |
| End-around | -4.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.23 pts |
| Deep post | -7.40 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.