Panthers vs Falcons — Week 9, 2017
The Panthers took over leading 20-17 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 20, Falcons 17. Panthers won 20-17 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.6% for Panthers. Our model starts at 77.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to CAR 26 for 1 yard (92-D.Poe).
- (2:41) 28-J.Stewart left guard to CAR 27 for 1 yard (91-C.Upshaw).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Samuel.
- (2:32) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to ATL 16, Center-44-J.Jansen. 19-A.Roberts to ATL 21 for 5 yards (53-B.Jacobs; 55-D.Mayo).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| Outside run | +0.28 pts |
| QB keep | +0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.15 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Curl route | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.19 pts |
| Play action | -1.28 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.62 pts |
| End-around | -3.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.25 pts |
| Deep post | -5.99 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.70 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.