Jets vs Jaguars — Week 4, 2017
The Jets took over leading 20-17 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Jets 20, Jaguars 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turnover.
Jets ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.9% for Jets. Our model starts at 71.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) 97-L.Thomas and 78-J.Harrison reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell right guard to NYJ 20 for no gain (39-T.Gipson).
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short left to 10-J.Kearse to NYJ 30 for 10 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell up the middle to NYJ 33 for 3 yards (50-T.Smith).
- (3:28) 29-B.Powell left guard to NYJ 34 for 1 yard (44-M.Jack).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 15-J.McCown pass short left intended for 29-B.Powell INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Bouye at NYJ 35. 21-A.Bouye to NYJ 35 for no gain (29-B.Powell).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.11 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Quick out | -0.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Curl route | -1.17 pts |
| Play action | -1.37 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.57 pts |
| End-around | -3.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.15 pts |
| Deep post | -5.68 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.42 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.