Titans vs Colts — Week 12, 2017
The Titans took over leading 20-16 with 3:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Titans 20, Colts 16. Titans won 20-16 — the drive time expired.
Titans ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.0% for Titans. Our model starts at 82.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:54) (Run formation) 29-D.Murray left end to TEN 40 for 12 yards (57-J.Bostic).
- (3:08) (Run formation) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at TEN 44 for 4 yards (44-A.Morrison). PENALTY on IND-44-A.Morrison, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 44.
- (3:02) (Run formation) 29-D.Murray up the middle to IND 42 for -1 yards (92-M.Hunt).
- (2:57) (Run formation) 22-D.Henry right end to IND 36 for 6 yards (57-J.Bostic).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 29-D.Murray to IND 28 for 8 yards (35-P.Desir).
- (2:39) (Run formation) 22-D.Henry left guard to IND 27 for 1 yard (93-J.Sheard).
- (2:00) (Run formation) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end to IND 11 for 16 yards (90-G.Stewart).
- (1:08) (Run formation) 8-M.Mariota kneels to IND 7 for -1 yards.
- (:30) (Run formation) 8-M.Mariota kneels to IND 8 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.02 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| QB keep | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Play action | -1.82 pts |
| Curl route | -1.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.95 pts |
| Deep post | -7.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.51 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.