Panthers vs Lions — Week 5, 2017
The Panthers took over leading 27-24 with 3:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Lions 24. Panthers won 27-24 — the drive time expired.
Panthers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 23, 3:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.0% for Panthers. Our model starts at 75.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:17) 28-J.Stewart up the middle to CAR 21 for -2 yards (69-A.Zettel).
- (3:13) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 17-D.Funchess to CAR 24 for 3 yards (31-D.Hayden).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left to 13-K.Benjamin to CAR 41 for 17 yards (23-D.Slay).
- (2:00) 65-A.Silatolu reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton kneels to CAR 40 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 1-C.Newton kneels to CAR 37 for -3 yards.
- (:37) 1-C.Newton kneels to CAR 35 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.08 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.51 pts |
| Outside run | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.04 pts |
| Quick out | -0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.24 pts |
| Inside run | -0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Curl route | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Play action | -1.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.47 pts |
| End-around | -3.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.09 pts |
| Deep post | -5.76 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.08 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.