Falcons vs Buccaneers — Week 15, 2017
The Falcons took over leading 24-21 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21. Falcons won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.0% for Falcons. Our model starts at 77.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) 24-D.Freeman right end to ATL 29 for 1 yard (90-C.Baker, 23-C.Conte).
- (3:16) (Shotgun) 24-D.Freeman up the middle to ATL 32 for 3 yards (92-W.Gholston).
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 39 for 7 yards (58-K.Alexander) [94-W.Clarke].
- (2:23) 28-T.Ward up the middle to ATL 40 for 1 yard (58-K.Alexander).
- (2:19) 28-T.Ward left end to ATL 40 for no gain (94-W.Clarke).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 37 for -3 yards (98-C.McDonald).
- (1:14) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-A.Humphries to TB 29 for 19 yards (50-B.Reed).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.43 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.26 pts |
| Curl route | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -1.44 pts |
| End-around | -3.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.77 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.41 pts |
| Deep post | -6.18 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.