Giants vs Chargers — Week 5, 2017
The Giants took over leading 22-20 with 4:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 22, Chargers 27. Chargers won 27-22 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 20, 4:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 67.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:44) 34-S.Vereen up the middle to NYG 23 for 3 yards (50-H.Pullard).
- (4:07) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 13-O.Beckham. NYG-13-O.Beckham was injured during the play.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 11 for -12 yards (54-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (54-M.Ingram) [54-M.Ingram], RECOVERED by LAC-54-M.Ingram at NYG 11. 54-M.Ingram to NYG 11 for no gain (76-D.Fluker).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.18 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.42 pts |
| QB keep | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Curl route | -0.73 pts |
| Play action | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -3.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.65 pts |
| Deep post | -4.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.18 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.