Seahawks vs 49ers — Week 2, 2017
The Seahawks took over leading 12-9 with 4:47 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 12, 49ers 9. Seahawks won 12-9 — the drive time expired.
Seahawks ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 12, 4:47 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 76.4% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 72.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:47) 32-C.Carson left end to SEA 21 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt; 25-J.Ward).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 23 for 2 yards (53-N.Bowman; 90-E.Mitchell).
- (3:33) 32-C.Carson left tackle to SEA 35 for 12 yards (99-D.Buckner).
- (3:20) 32-C.Carson right tackle to SEA 37 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner; 54-R.Armstrong).
- (2:38) 32-C.Carson right end to SF 47 for 16 yards (29-J.Tartt).
- (2:00) 3-R.Wilson kneels to SF 49 for -2 yards.
- (1:21) 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 49 for -2 yards.
- (:41) 3-R.Wilson kneels to SEA 48 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.99 pts |
| Outside run | -1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.14 pts |
| Inside run | -1.28 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.41 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.79 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.06 pts |
| Curl route | -2.39 pts |
| Play action | -2.48 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.36 pts |
| End-around | -4.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.98 pts |
| Deep post | -6.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.29 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.