Bills vs Panthers — Week 2, 2017
The Bills took over trailing 9-3 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Bills 3, Panthers 9. Panthers won 9-3 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bills ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.9% for Bills. Our model starts at 12.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 25-L.McCoy to BUF 31 for 6 yards (26-D.Worley).
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 11-Z.Jones to BUF 37 for 6 yards (41-C.Munnerlyn).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short right to 87-J.Matthews to BUF 38 for 1 yard (24-J.Bradberry).
- (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 11-Z.Jones pushed ob at 50 for 12 yards (26-D.Worley).
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end pushed ob at CAR 48 for 2 yards (58-T.Davis).
- (1:26) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short middle to 25-L.McCoy to CAR 41 for 7 yards (97-M.Addison).
- (1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass short left to 18-A.Holmes pushed ob at CAR 32 for 9 yards (26-D.Worley).
- (:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles right end to CAR 38 for 4 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 11-Z.Jones.
- (:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles right guard to CAR 33 for 5 yards (59-L.Kuechly).
- (:14) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep right to 11-Z.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.32 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Deep post | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.73 pts |
| QB keep | +0.62 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.29 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| End-around | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| Spike it | -1.32 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.