Bears vs Falcons — Week 1, 2017

What really happened

Final: Bears 17, Falcons 23. Falcons won 23-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Bears ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 18, 3:18 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 13.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:18) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 24-Jo.Howard pushed ob at CHI 18 for no gain (59-D.Campbell).
2. (3:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 24-Jo.Howard to CHI 23 for 5 yards (34-B.Poole).
3. (2:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short middle to 13-K.Wright to CHI 39 for 16 yards (42-D.Riley) [34-B.Poole].
4. (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 43 for 4 yards (34-B.Poole).
5. (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 13-K.Wright to ATL 49 for 8 yards (34-B.Poole).
6. (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 15-J.Bellamy to ATL 42 for 7 yards (34-B.Poole).
7. (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short left to 14-D.Thompson. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
8. (:51) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short left to 13-K.Wright (23-R.Alford).
9. (:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short middle to 15-J.Bellamy to ATL 28 for 14 yards (21-D.Trufant).
10. (:39) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right to 29-T.Cohen [99-A.Clayborn]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
11. (:32) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 86-Z.Miller to ATL 16 for 12 yards (22-K.Neal).
12. (:26) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 86-Z.Miller pushed ob at ATL 5 for 11 yards (42-D.Riley) [95-J.Crawford].

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.