Falcons vs Seahawks — Week 11, 2017
The Falcons took over leading 34-31 with 2:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 34, Seahawks 31. Falcons won 34-31 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 15, 2:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.6% for Falcons. Our model starts at 77.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:54) 26-T.Coleman left tackle to ATL 21 for 6 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:10) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to ATL 22 for 1 yard (30-B.McDougald).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 17 for -5 yards (91-S.Richardson).
- (1:55) 5-M.Bosher punts 48 yards to SEA 35, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 35 for no gain (17-M.Hall). PENALTY on SEA-59-J.Forrest, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 35.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.66 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.86 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.77 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| QB keep | -0.95 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Quick out | -1.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.09 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.23 pts |
| Curl route | -1.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Play action | -1.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.05 pts |
| End-around | -4.33 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.71 pts |
| Deep post | -6.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.66 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.