Lions vs Vikings — Week 4, 2017
The Lions took over leading 14-7 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Lions 14, Vikings 7. Lions won 14-7 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 14, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.6% for Lions. Our model starts at 94.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) 34-Z.Zenner right guard to DET 15 for 1 yard (98-L.Joseph).
- (2:07) 34-Z.Zenner left tackle to DET 12 for -3 yards (97-E.Griffen).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 34-Z.Zenner up the middle to DET 9 for 2 yards (54-E.Kendricks).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 47 yards to MIN 44, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 44 for no gain (10-J.Abbrederis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.16 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Quick out | -1.35 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.37 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.39 pts |
| End-around | -5.39 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.39 pts |
| Deep post | -9.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.16 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.