Dolphins vs Buccaneers — Week 11, 2017
The Dolphins took over trailing 20-13 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 20, Buccaneers 30. Buccaneers won 30-20 — the drive scored.
Dolphins ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 26, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.6% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 13.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 89-J.Thomas to MIA 32 for 6 yards (58-K.Alexander).
- (4:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 10-K.Stills to MIA 39 for 7 yards (54-L.David) [91-R.Ayers Jr.].
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 32-K.Drake up the middle to MIA 39 for no gain (54-L.David).
- (3:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker.
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass deep right to 10-K.Stills for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.39 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.73 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.05 pts |
| End-around | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.