Browns vs Jaguars — Week 11, 2017
The Browns took over trailing 13-7 with 3:28 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Browns 7, Jaguars 19. Jaguars won 19-7 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 22, 3:28 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 18.1% for Browns. Our model starts at 14.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 87-S.DeValve to CLE 27 for 5 yards (22-A.Colvin).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson to CLE 34 for 7 yards (44-M.Jack; 22-A.Colvin) [93-C.Campbell].
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer scrambles right end pushed ob at CLE 39 for 5 yards (23-T.Patmon; 20-J.Ramsey).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass short right to 29-D.Johnson to JAX 40 for 21 yards (42-B.Church).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete deep middle to 87-S.DeValve (20-J.Ramsey).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 19-C.Coleman.
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer sacked at JAX 45 for -5 yards (sack split by 93-C.Campbell and 91-Y.Ngakoue). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer sacked at JAX 45 for -5 yards (sack split by 93-C.Campbell and 91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (93-C.Campbell), RECOVERED by JAX-56-D.Fowler at JAX 44.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.06 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.75 pts |
| Deep post | +0.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.71 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.12 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| End-around | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Spike it | -1.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.