Steelers vs Browns — Week 1, 2017
The Steelers took over leading 21-18 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 21, Browns 18. Steelers won 21-18 — the drive time expired.
Steelers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 20, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 75.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 81-J.James to PIT 28 for 8 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown to CLE 44 for 38 yards (30-J.McCourty). Cleveland challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (2:28) 26-L.Bell right tackle to CLE 29 for 15 yards (26-D.Kindred; 94-C.Nassib).
- (2:00) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to CLE 33 for -4 yards.
- (1:16) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to CLE 36 for -3 yards.
- (:36) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to CLE 37 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.89 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.89 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.46 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| QB keep | +0.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.28 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.44 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Curl route | -0.97 pts |
| Play action | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.48 pts |
| End-around | -3.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.09 pts |
| Deep post | -5.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.