Patriots vs Falcons — Week 21, 2016
The Patriots took over trailing 28-20 with 3:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
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What really happened
Final: Patriots 28, Falcons 28. Tied 28-28 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Patriots ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 3:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.6% for Patriots. Our model starts at 7.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 28-J.White [97-G.Jarrett].
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 15-C.Hogan.
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 15-C.Hogan to NE 25 for 16 yards (32-J.Collins).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman (23-R.Alford).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 19-M.Mitchell pushed ob at NE 36 for 11 yards (32-J.Collins).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 11-J.Edelman to ATL 41 for 23 yards (22-K.Neal). Atlanta challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. (Timeout #3.)
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 80-D.Amendola to ATL 21 for 20 yards (34-B.Poole).
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to ATL 8 for 13 yards (34-B.Poole; 37-R.Allen).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to ATL 1 for 7 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (1:00) 28-J.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.21 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.21 pts |
| Curl route | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.59 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.62 pts |
| QB keep | -0.62 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.69 pts |
| Spike it | -0.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Outside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| End-around | -1.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.