Vikings vs Cowboys — Week 13, 2016
The Vikings took over trailing 17-9 with 4:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 15, Cowboys 17. Cowboys won 17-15 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 4:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.2% for Vikings. Our model starts at 9.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 82-K.Rudolph (59-A.Hitchens).
- (4:03) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to MIN 38 for 13 yards (39-B.Carr).
- (3:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 21-J.McKinnon to MIN 43 for 5 yards (32-O.Scandrick).
- (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford sacked at MIN 36 for -7 yards (93-B.Mayowa). Penalty on MIN-68-T.Clemmings, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 82-K.Rudolph [95-D.Irving].
- (3:08) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-K.McDermott. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 34 for 2 yards (94-J.Trattou). PENALTY on DAL-35-K.Frazier, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 32.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.70 pts |
| Deep post | +0.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| QB keep | +0.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.44 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.86 pts |
| End-around | -0.92 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.94 pts |
| Spike it | -1.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.