Browns vs Steelers — Week 11, 2016
The Browns took over trailing 17-9 with 3:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 9, Steelers 24. Steelers won 24-9 — the drive turnover.
Browns ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 13, 3:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.6% for Browns. Our model starts at 8.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass incomplete short middle to 11-T.Pryor Sr.. CLE-11-T.Pryor Sr. was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown sacked at CLE 2 for -11 yards (50-R.Shazier). FUMBLES (50-R.Shazier) [50-R.Shazier], RECOVERED by PIT-79-J.Hargrave at CLE 0. TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.01 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-1.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.01 pts |
| Curl route | -0.07 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.32 pts |
| Play action | -0.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.83 pts |
| Spike it | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.10 pts |
| Outside run | -1.10 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.17 pts |
| End-around | -1.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.