Dolphins vs Patriots — Week 2, 2016
The Dolphins took over trailing 31-24 with 1:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 24, Patriots 31. Patriots won 31-24 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Dolphins ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 29, 1:04 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 7.4% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 5.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to MIA 49 for 20 yards (32-D.McCourty).
- (:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short middle to 14-J.Landry (95-C.Long).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right guard to NE 34 for 17 yards (26-L.Ryan).
- (:21) 17-R.Tannehill spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 14-J.Landry ran ob at NE 29 for 5 yards.
- (:15) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 10-K.Stills.
- (:09) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left intended for 11-D.Parker INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Harmon [95-C.Long] at NE -9. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.89 pts |
| Curl route | +0.71 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.41 pts |
| QB keep | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.31 pts |
| Play action | +0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Quick out | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Flea flicker | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.17 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Spike it | -0.65 pts |
| End-around | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.