Commanders vs Cardinals — Week 13, 2016
The Commanders took over trailing 31-23 with 1:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, Cardinals 31. Cardinals won 31-23 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 25, 1:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.8% for Commanders. Our model starts at 5.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to WAS 28 for 3 yards (44-M.Golden).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 80-J.Crowder.
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 85-V.Davis to ARI 34 for 18 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 85-V.Davis pushed ob at ARI 28 for 6 yards (22-T.Jefferson).
- (:52) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Jackson [36-D.Swearinger].
- (:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right intended for 80-J.Crowder INTERCEPTED by 21-P.Peterson [44-M.Golden] at ARI 18. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 20 for 2 yards (80-J.Crowder).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.69 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.69 pts |
| Curl route | +0.58 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.38 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.33 pts |
| QB keep | +0.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.21 pts |
| Quick out | +0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.13 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Spike it | -0.60 pts |
| End-around | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.