Ravens vs Jets — Week 7, 2016
The Ravens took over trailing 24-16 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 16, Jets 24. Jets won 24-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Ravens ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 30, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 6.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 8.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 17-M.Wallace to BAL 35 for 5 yards (51-J.Stanford).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 18-B.Perriman.
- (2:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 88-D.Pitta to BAL 41 for 6 yards (51-J.Stanford).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Pitta [91-S.Richardson].
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-M.Wallace to NYJ 46 for 13 yards (91-S.Richardson).
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 44-K.Juszczyk to NYJ 44 for 2 yards (51-J.Stanford).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 10-C.Moore.
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 11-K.Aiken.
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 10-C.Moore (20-M.Williams).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.74 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.74 pts |
| Deep post | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.45 pts |
| QB keep | +0.37 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.18 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| End-around | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.89 pts |
| Spike it | -0.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.