Steelers vs Chiefs — Week 19, 2016
The Steelers took over leading 18-16 with 2:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
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What really happened
Final: Steelers 18, Chiefs 16. Steelers won 18-16 — the drive time expired.
Playoff football. Steelers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. Backed up at their own 5, 2:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 71.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 71.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:38) 26-L.Bell up the middle to PIT 7 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (2:32) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 17-E.Rogers to PIT 12 for 5 yards (20-S.Nelson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown ran ob at PIT 19 for 7 yards.
- (1:51) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to PIT 18 for -1 yards.
- (1:12) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to PIT 17 for -1 yards.
- (:32) 7-B.Roethlisberger kneels to PIT 16 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.69 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Outside run | -1.11 pts |
| Inside run | -1.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.51 pts |
| Quick out | -1.74 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.80 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.86 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.35 pts |
| Play action | -3.32 pts |
| Curl route | -3.38 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.82 pts |
| End-around | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.44 pts |
| Deep post | -6.36 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.69 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.