Packers vs Cowboys — Week 19, 2016
The Packers took over tied at 28 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
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What really happened
Final: Packers 34, Cowboys 31. Packers won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.4% for Packers. Our model starts at 55.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Rodgers. Pass thrown in the flat; Scandrick closest.
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to GB 41 for 16 yards (39-B.Carr). GB-17-D.Adams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Pass complete on a skinny post.
- (3:20) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to 50 for 9 yards (50-S.Lee).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers left end to DAL 45 for 5 yards (32-O.Scandrick).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 88-T.Montgomery up the middle to DAL 33 for 2 yards (90-D.Lawrence).
- (1:48) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to DAL 38 for -5 yards (90-D.Lawrence).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 17-D.Adams. Pass incomplete at the Dallas 7 on a flag pattern.
- (1:38) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.94 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.94 pts |
| QB keep | +0.73 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| Curl route | +0.35 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.07 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.19 pts |
| Play action | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.41 pts |
| End-around | -2.68 pts |
| Spike it | -2.93 pts |
| Deep post | -3.06 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.