Commanders vs Giants — Week 17, 2016
The Commanders took over trailing 13-10 with 2:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 10, Giants 19. Giants won 19-10 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.1% for Commanders. Our model starts at 30.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 11-D.Jackson ran ob at WAS 36 for 11 yards.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 88-P.Garcon to WAS 39 for 3 yards (31-T.Wade).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson to WAS 46 for 7 yards (25-L.Hall).
- (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson to NYG 43 for 11 yards (25-L.Hall; 31-T.Wade).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle intended for 88-P.Garcon INTERCEPTED by 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie at NYG 25. 41-D.Rodgers-Cromartie to WAS 47 for 28 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.98 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.51 pts |
| QB keep | +1.35 pts |
| Play action | +0.96 pts |
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.61 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.14 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.35 pts |
| Inside run | -1.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.62 pts |
| End-around | -1.74 pts |
| Spike it | -2.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.