Bengals vs Texans — Week 16, 2016
The Bengals took over trailing 12-10 with 3:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 1 timeout in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 10, Texans 12. Texans won 12-10 — the drive missed field goal.
Bengals ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 15, 3:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.0% for Bengals. Our model starts at 35.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 33-R.Burkhead right tackle to CIN 24 for 9 yards (29-A.Hal; 56-B.Cushing).
- (3:24) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 16-C.Core to CIN 28 for 4 yards (21-A.Bouye).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 16-C.Core.
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 33-R.Burkhead up the middle to CIN 33 for 5 yards (29-A.Hal; 55-B.McKinney).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at CIN 41 for 8 yards (29-A.Hal).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 33-R.Burkhead left end to CIN 35 for -6 yards (56-B.Cushing).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 87-C.Uzomah pushed ob at CIN 40 for 5 yards (21-A.Bouye).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 86-J.Wright to CIN 48 for 8 yards (21-A.Bouye).
- (1:25) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to HOU 44 for 8 yards (29-A.Hal).
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 33-R.Burkhead to HOU 35 for 9 yards (35-E.Pleasant).
- (:47) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah to HOU 34 for 1 yard (29-A.Hal).
- (:22) (Shotgun) 33-R.Burkhead right tackle to HOU 25 for 9 yards (27-Q.Demps; 35-E.Pleasant).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.04 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.18 pts |
| QB keep | -0.45 pts |
| Play action | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.15 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.20 pts |
| Deep post | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.46 pts |
| Outside run | -1.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.65 pts |
| Inside run | -2.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.42 pts |
| Spike it | -2.73 pts |
| End-around | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.