Saints vs Raiders — Week 1, 2016
The Saints took over trailing 35-34 with 0:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Saints 34, Raiders 35. Raiders won 35-34 — the drive missed field goal.
Saints ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 23, 0:40 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.7% for Saints. Our model starts at 41.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (:40) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep middle to 83-W.Snead to NO 44 for 21 yards (53-M.Smith). Pass 17, YAC 4
- (:24) (No Huddle) 9-D.Brees spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 83-W.Snead to LV 43 for 13 yards (27-R.Nelson). Pass 13, YAC 0
- (:10) 9-D.Brees spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:09) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 82-C.Fleener.
- (:05) 3-W.Lutz 61 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.49 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | +2.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +2.06 pts |
| QB keep | +1.84 pts |
| Play action | +1.28 pts |
| Quick out | +1.07 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.92 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.48 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.69 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.08 pts |
| End-around | -2.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.32 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.