Saints vs Broncos — Week 10, 2016
The Saints took over trailing 20-17 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Saints 23, Broncos 25. Broncos won 25-23 — the drive turnover.
Saints ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 13, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 29.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 13-M.Thomas [58-V.Miller].
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 13-M.Thomas to NO 18 for 5 yards (93-J.Crick). FUMBLES (93-J.Crick), RECOVERED by DEN-43-T.Ward at NO 20. 43-T.Ward to NO 20 for no gain (82-C.Fleener). Pass 3, YAC 2
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.23 pts), and the weakest was End-around (-3.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.66 pts |
| Deep post | -0.87 pts |
| Play action | -0.92 pts |
| QB keep | -0.97 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Quick out | -1.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.34 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.49 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.52 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -2.06 pts |
| Inside run | -2.20 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.77 pts |
| End-around | -3.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.