Giants vs Ravens — Week 6, 2016
The Giants took over trailing 23-20 with 2:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Giants 27, Ravens 23. Giants won 27-23 — the drive scored.
Giants ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 2:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 29.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 43-B.Rainey.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 84-L.Donnell to NYG 31 for 6 yards (23-K.Lewis).
- (1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 84-L.Donnell pushed ob at NYG 34 for 3 yards (36-T.Young).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL-36-T.Young was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-13-O.Beckham, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.03 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.03 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.59 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Play action | +1.00 pts |
| Deep post | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.20 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.11 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.29 pts |
| Inside run | -1.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.63 pts |
| End-around | -1.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.