Bengals vs Jets — Week 1, 2016
The Bengals took over trailing 22-20 with 3:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 16, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 23, Jets 22. Bengals won 23-22 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 16, 3:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.9% for Bengals. Our model starts at 37.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green to CIN 22 for 6 yards (24-D.Revis; 41-B.Skrine).
- (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-J.Hill up the middle to CIN 28 for 6 yards (55-L.Mauldin; 92-L.Williams).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green to CIN 37 for 9 yards (21-M.Gilchrist, 96-M.Wilkerson). PENALTY on NYJ-21-M.Gilchrist, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CIN 37.
- (2:22) (Shotgun) 32-J.Hill right tackle to NYJ 44 for 4 yards (96-M.Wilkerson).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 86-J.Wright to NYJ 37 for 7 yards (50-D.Lee; 24-D.Revis).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 32-J.Hill up the middle to NYJ 38 for -1 yards (97-L.Thomas; 52-D.Harris).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 32-J.Hill right guard to NYJ 40 for -2 yards (97-L.Thomas).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 18-A.Green to NYJ 29 for 11 yards (24-D.Revis).
- (:58) 2-M.Nugent 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.28 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.14 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.69 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.94 pts |
| Deep post | -1.12 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.25 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.28 pts |
| Outside run | -1.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.48 pts |
| Inside run | -2.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.81 pts |
| End-around | -2.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.