Colts vs Jaguars — Week 17, 2016
The Colts took over tied at 17 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Colts 24, Jaguars 20. Colts won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 44, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 61.1% for Colts. Our model starts at 64.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) (Run formation) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 37 for -7 yards (90-M.Jackson).
- (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete deep middle to 80-C.Rogers.
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at IND 30 for -7 yards (90-M.Jackson).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punt is BLOCKED by 55-D.Skuta, Center-45-M.Overton, recovered by IND-44-A.Morrison at IND 19. 44-A.Morrison pass incomplete short left to 1-P.McAfee. By rule the next play begins at the previous spot. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.97 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.88 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Outside run | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.10 pts |
| Curl route | +0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Play action | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.93 pts |
| End-around | -2.93 pts |
| Deep post | -3.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.