Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 5, 2016
The Panthers took over tied at 14 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 14, Buccaneers 17. Buccaneers won 17-14 — the drive turned it over.
Panthers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 36, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 59.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 61.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 34-C.Artis-Payne right guard to CAR 41 for 5 yards (30-B.McDougald; 92-W.Gholston).
- (3:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 34-C.Artis-Payne left guard to CAR 44 for 3 yards (92-W.Gholston).
- (2:23) 34-C.Artis-Payne left tackle to CAR 43 for -1 yards (97-A.Spence; 51-Da.Smith).
- (2:00) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.03 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.65 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.65 pts |
| Curl route | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.12 pts |
| Play action | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.65 pts |
| End-around | -2.79 pts |
| Spike it | -2.82 pts |
| Deep post | -3.51 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.92 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.