Eagles vs Lions — Week 5, 2016
The Eagles took over leading 23-21 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 23, Lions 24. Lions won 24-23 — the drive turnover.
Eagles ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 23, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 69.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 67.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 13-J.Huff to PHI 25 for 2 yards (32-T.Wilson).
- (4:19) (Shotgun) 24-R.Mathews left tackle to PHI 27 for 2 yards (59-T.Whitehead).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 81-J.Matthews to PHI 37 for 10 yards (28-Q.Diggs). DET-28-Q.Diggs was injured during the play.
- (2:51) 64-M.Tobin reported in as eligible. 24-R.Mathews left tackle to PHI 44 for 7 yards (59-T.Whitehead).
- (2:46) 24-R.Mathews up the middle to PHI 45 for 1 yard (91-A.Robinson).
- (2:41) 24-R.Mathews right end to PHI 41 for -4 yards (23-D.Slay). FUMBLES (23-D.Slay), RECOVERED by DET-93-T.Walker at PHI 45. 93-T.Walker to PHI 45 for no gain (17-N.Agholor). The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.18 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.06 pts |
| Outside run | -0.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.17 pts |
| Quick out | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Curl route | -0.85 pts |
| Play action | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.25 pts |
| End-around | -3.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.77 pts |
| Deep post | -5.09 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.