Giants vs Cowboys — Week 1, 2016
The Giants took over leading 20-19 with 3:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 23, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Giants 20, Cowboys 19. Giants won 20-19 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 23, 3:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.3% for Giants. Our model starts at 62.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings up the middle to NYG 30 for 7 yards (98-T.Crawford, 50-S.Lee).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 42 for 12 yards (42-B.Church; 59-A.Hitchens).
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 45 for 3 yards (97-T.McClain; 59-A.Hitchens).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings left guard to DAL 46 for 9 yards (42-B.Church).
- (2:54) 23-R.Jennings left guard to DAL 45 for 1 yard (50-S.Lee).
- (2:11) 23-R.Jennings up the middle to DAL 48 for -3 yards (95-D.Irving).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings up the middle to DAL 37 for 11 yards (27-J.Wilcox).
- (1:12) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.82 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.31 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.56 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.10 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.02 pts |
| Curl route | -0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.26 pts |
| Play action | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.53 pts |
| End-around | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.97 pts |
| Deep post | -3.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.31 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.