Falcons vs Seahawks — Week 6, 2016
The Falcons took over leading 24-23 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 24, Seahawks 26. Seahawks won 26-24 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 64.8% for Falcons. Our model starts at 60.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 42-P.DiMarco to ATL 28 for 3 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (4:05) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 24-D.Freeman to ATL 39 for 11 yards (29-E.Thomas).
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left intended for 11-J.Jones INTERCEPTED by 29-E.Thomas (25-R.Sherman) at SEA 45. 29-E.Thomas to 50 for 5 yards (51-A.Mack).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.91 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.91 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.21 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Quick out | -0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.16 pts |
| Curl route | -0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Play action | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.64 pts |
| End-around | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.07 pts |
| Deep post | -4.04 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.10 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.