Chiefs vs Falcons — Week 13, 2016
The Chiefs took over leading 29-28 with 4:24 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 29, Falcons 28. Chiefs won 29-28 — the drive time expired.
Chiefs ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. Backed up at their own 8, 4:24 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 60.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 60.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:24) 32-S.Ware right end to KC 8 for no gain (59-D.Campbell).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 87-T.Kelce to KC 22 for 14 yards (32-J.Collins).
- (2:56) 75-J.Reid reported in as eligible. 32-S.Ware right tackle to KC 22 for no gain (95-J.Babineaux).
- (2:14) 32-S.Ware left tackle to KC 26 for 4 yards (45-D.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 12-A.Wilson to KC 36 for 10 yards (37-R.Allen). ATL-37-R.Allen was injured during the play.
- (1:53) 11-A.Smith kneels to KC 35 for -1 yards.
- (1:12) 11-A.Smith kneels to KC 34 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 11-A.Smith kneels to KC 33 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.16 pts |
| Outside run | -1.45 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.60 pts |
| Inside run | -1.66 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.68 pts |
| Quick out | -1.81 pts |
| QB keep | -1.84 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.32 pts |
| Curl route | -2.56 pts |
| Play action | -2.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.08 pts |
| End-around | -4.56 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.57 pts |
| Deep post | -5.20 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.