Titans vs Texans — Week 17, 2016
The Titans took over leading 24-17 with 3:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Texans 17. Titans won 24-17 — the drive turned it over.
Titans ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 11, 3:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.8% for Titans. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:10) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 12 for 1 yard (98-D.Reader).
- (3:04) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 16 for 4 yards (95-C.Covington; 57-B.Scarlett).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry right end to TEN 24 for 8 yards (35-E.Pleasant).
- (2:33) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at TEN 38 for 14 yards (22-D.Rice).
- (2:25) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 36 for -2 yards (52-B.Peters).
- (2:00) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 37 for 1 yard (53-M.Bullough).
- (1:12) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at TEN 39 for 2 yards (22-D.Rice).
- (1:05) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to HOU 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 18 for -1 yards (89-P.Supernaw).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.12 pts |
| Quick out | -1.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| QB keep | -1.81 pts |
| Play action | -3.07 pts |
| Curl route | -3.40 pts |
| End-around | -5.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.32 pts |
| Deep post | -8.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.13 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.