Giants vs Rams — Week 7, 2016
The Giants took over leading 17-10 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Giants 17, Rams 10. Giants won 17-10 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.9% for Giants. Our model starts at 91.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) 23-R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 22 for 2 yards (52-A.Ogletree).
- (3:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings left guard to NYG 26 for 4 yards (52-A.Ogletree).
- (3:18) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete deep right to 13-O.Beckham.
- (3:10) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to LA 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.05 pts |
| QB keep | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -2.60 pts |
| Curl route | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.90 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.95 pts |
| Deep post | -8.49 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.72 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.