Rams vs 49ers — Week 16, 2016
The Rams took over leading 21-14 with 4:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 21, 49ers 22. 49ers won 22-21 — the drive turned it over.
Rams ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 30, 4:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.8% for Rams. Our model starts at 90.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:59) 66-D.Arkin reported in as eligible. 30-T.Gurley up the middle to LA 31 for 1 yard (92-Q.Dial).
- (4:13) 30-T.Gurley up the middle to LA 35 for 4 yards (51-G.Hodges).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 34 for -1 yards (98-R.Blair). Penalty on LA, Illegal Shift, declined.
- (3:15) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 17-J.Kerley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.34 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.54 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.34 pts |
| Outside run | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick out | -1.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| QB keep | -1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -2.64 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.96 pts |
| Deep post | -8.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.54 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.