Ravens vs Bills — Week 1, 2016
The Ravens took over leading 13-7 with 4:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 13, Bills 7. Ravens won 13-7 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 36, 4:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.4% for Ravens. Our model starts at 89.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:29) 28-T.West left tackle to BAL 35 for -1 yards (57-L.Alexander).
- (3:55) 17-M.Wallace right end to BAL 46 for 11 yards (23-Aa.Williams). Wallace on end-around play.
- (3:09) 28-T.West left guard to BAL 48 for 2 yards (97-C.Bryant; 95-K.Williams).
- (2:26) 29-J.Forsett right end to BUF 45 for 7 yards (53-Z.Brown). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
- (2:00) 28-T.West up the middle to BUF 42 for 3 yards (52-P.Brown). No. 94 - Jerel Worthy (BUF) injured on play.
- (1:46) 5-J.Flacco kneels to BUF 43 for -1 yards.
- (1:08) 5-J.Flacco kneels to BUF 44 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 5-J.Flacco kneels to BUF 45 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.47 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.35 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.47 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.91 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.01 pts |
| QB keep | -1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Play action | -2.49 pts |
| Curl route | -2.72 pts |
| End-around | -4.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.79 pts |
| Deep post | -8.25 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.50 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.35 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.