Chargers vs Chiefs — Week 1, 2016
The Chargers took over leading 27-20 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 27, Chiefs 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:09 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.1% for Chargers. Our model starts at 92.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 27 for 2 yards (29-E.Berry).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 25 for -2 yards (20-S.Nelson).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 25 for no gain (51-F.Zombo).
- (1:59) 8-D.Kaser punts 17 yards to LAC 42, Center-47-M.Windt. 57-D.Alexander to LAC 42 for no gain.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.50 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.53 pts |
| Quick out | -0.95 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.02 pts |
| QB keep | -1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.44 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| End-around | -4.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.14 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.01 pts |
| Deep post | -8.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.81 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.