Raiders vs Titans — Week 3, 2016
The Raiders took over leading 17-10 with 4:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 1 timeout in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 17, Titans 10. Raiders won 17-10 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 26, 4:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 90.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:18) 30-J.Richard left end pushed ob at LV 34 for 8 yards (25-R.Johnson).
- (4:12) 30-J.Richard left guard to LV 37 for 3 yards (24-D.Stafford).
- (3:27) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 89-A.Cooper.
- (3:21) 30-J.Richard left tackle to LV 38 for 1 yard (25-R.Johnson).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree ran ob at LV 49 for 11 yards.
- (3:07) 28-L.Murray up the middle to TEN 48 for 3 yards (24-D.Stafford; 96-A.Woods).
- (2:21) 28-L.Murray left guard to TEN 46 for 2 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:16) 28-L.Murray up the middle to TEN 43 for 3 yards (98-B.Orakpo).
- (2:00) (Punt formation) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.45 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.49 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.99 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.03 pts |
| QB keep | -1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Play action | -2.55 pts |
| Curl route | -2.81 pts |
| End-around | -4.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.89 pts |
| Deep post | -8.39 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.49 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.