Cowboys vs Eagles — Week 17, 2016
The Cowboys took over trailing 20-13 with 2:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
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What really happened
Final: Cowboys 13, Eagles 27. Eagles won 27-13 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 21, 2:13 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 11.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 7.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass incomplete short left to 25-L.Dunbar [55-B.Graham].
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Williams.
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 3-M.Sanchez sacked at DAL 2 for -19 yards (98-C.Barwin).
- (1:50) 6-C.Jones punt is BLOCKED by 51-S.Means, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, RECOVERED by PHI-52-N.Goode at DAL 7. 52-N.Goode to DAL 7 for no gain (89-G.Escobar).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.85 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-0.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.85 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.32 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.19 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.21 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| End-around | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -0.82 pts |
| Spike it | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.