Steelers vs Browns — Week 17, 2016
The Steelers took over tied at 21 with 3:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 21, Browns 21. Tied 21-21 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 11, 3:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.2% for Steelers. Our model starts at 51.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:22) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 34-D.Williams. 34-D.Williams up the middle to PIT 13 for 2 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (2:48) 3-L.Jones pass short right to 45-R.Nix to PIT 15 for 2 yards (53-J.Schobert, 23-J.Haden).
- (2:04) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones sacked at PIT 5 for -10 yards (39-E.Reynolds).
- (1:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 64 yards to CLE 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 15-M.Alford to 50 for 17 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.03 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.34 pts |
| Curl route | -1.37 pts |
| Outside run | -1.72 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Play action | -1.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.91 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.94 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.31 pts |
| Deep post | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -4.34 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.