Vikings vs Lions — Week 12, 2016
The Vikings took over tied at 13 with 1:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 13, Lions 16. Lions won 16-13 — the drive turnover.
Vikings ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 1:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.7% for Vikings. Our model starts at 55.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:45) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph to MIN 30 for 5 yards (59-T.Whitehead; 57-J.Bynes).
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to MIN 33 for 3 yards (23-D.Slay) [94-E.Ansah].
- (:38) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right intended for 19-A.Thielen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at MIN 33. 23-D.Slay to MIN 20 for 13 yards (84-C.Patterson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.70 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.48 pts |
| QB keep | +1.47 pts |
| Curl route | +1.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.79 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.64 pts |
| Play action | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.53 pts |
| Deep post | -1.90 pts |
| End-around | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.60 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.