Seahawks vs Cardinals — Week 7, 2016
The Seahawks took over trailing 3-0 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at the Cardinals 22, 1 timeout in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Seahawks 6, Cardinals 6. Tied 6-6 — the drive scored.
Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. In Cardinals territory, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.8% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 52.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 15-J.Kearse.
- (4:16) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 89-D.Baldwin (36-D.Swearinger) [55-Ch.Jones].
- (4:10) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 19-T.McEvoy pushed ob at ARI 22 for 10 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (4:05) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-N.Frese, Holder-9-J.Ryan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+2.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +2.48 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +0.96 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| Curl route | +0.66 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Outside run | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.01 pts |
| End-around | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.84 pts |
| Deep post | -3.90 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.