Packers vs Bears — Week 15, 2016
The Packers took over tied at 27 with 1:13 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 30, Bears 27. Packers won 30-27 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 27, 1:13 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.9% for Packers. Our model starts at 55.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 89-J.Cook.
- (1:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-T.Montgomery to GB 26 for -1 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski). GB-65-L.Taylor was injured during the play.
- (:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 87-J.Nelson to CHI 14 for 60 yards (22-C.LeBlanc).
- (:04) 12-A.Rodgers spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.85 pts |
| Curl route | +1.65 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.64 pts |
| QB keep | +1.61 pts |
| Quick out | +0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.75 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | +0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.26 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.36 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Deep post | -1.69 pts |
| End-around | -2.37 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.47 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.