Buccaneers vs Raiders — Week 8, 2016
The Buccaneers took over tied at 24 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 24, Raiders 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 11, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 53.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:43) 36-A.Smith up the middle to TB 13 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (4:11) 36-A.Smith up the middle to TB 18 for 5 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), and recovers at TB 18. 36-A.Smith to TB 18 for no gain (95-J.Ward).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 36-A.Smith.
- (3:29) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 42 yards to LV 40, Center-48-A.DePaola. 30-J.Richard to LV 40 for no gain (26-J.Robinson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.20 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -1.67 pts |
| Curl route | -1.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.86 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.99 pts |
| Play action | -2.12 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.43 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.30 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.70 pts |
| Deep post | -4.09 pts |
| End-around | -4.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.20 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.